N.F.L. FAST FORWARD
Long Safe, Marino’s Mark Is in Danger
Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press
Eli Manning is the most surprising quarterback on the list of those threatening Dan Marino's passing yardage record.
Finally on Sunday, the N.F.L. stopped Aaron Rodgers at something.
Rodgers passed for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns before he was pulled late in the third quarter of the Green Bay Packers’ 46-16 dismantling of the Oakland Raiders. Rodgers has thrown for at least two touchdowns in 13 consecutive games, the Packers are 13-0 and Rodgers is a lock for the league’s Most Valuable Player award. Just one problem: Rodgers needed 310 yards to remain on a pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record of 5,084 yards, one of the N.F.L.’s most enduring records. He now has to average 320 yards in the Packers’ final three games to pass Marino.
Yet Marino’s record is far from safe. For just the second time since Marino set it in 1984, someone is on a pace to break the record after 13 games, and for the first time, there are multiple players threatening to do so this late in the season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, before this season, only two players had been on pace to break the record with four or fewer games to play: Rich Gannon in 2002 (through 12 and 13 games) and Drew Brees in 2008 (through 12 games).
On Sunday, four quarterbacks moved closer to the record, indicative of a game that is in a golden era at the position. The Saints’ Brees, who fell 16 yards short of breaking the record in 2008, threw for 337 yards against Tennessee and is well ahead of Marino’s pace, needing to average 239 yards in New Orleans’ final three games to pass him. That should be routine for Brees — he has passed for fewer than 239 yards only once this season, in a loss to the St. Louis Rams.
The New England Patriots’ Tom Brady, who passed for 357 yards Sunday — you would never know it from the sideline screaming match he had with the offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien — must average 270 to stay on pace. He has had fewer than 270 yards three times this season.
And just behind Rodgers is the newest, perhaps most surprising, entrant: Eli Manning. In the Giants’ 37-34 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night, Manning passed for 400 yards, giving him a career-high 4,105 for the season, just 20 yards behind Rodgers — elite quarterbacking by a player who is often overlooked when the current pantheon of greatness is considered.
Manning has to average 327 yards in the Giants’ final three games to break Marino’s record, not too far-fetched considering he has averaged 316 yards a game this season.
That Marino’s record has stood for so long given the N.F.L.’s inexorable tilt toward the pass — and its adoption of rules to protect quarterbacks and wide receivers — is testament to just how extraordinary his season was, especially at a time when offenses were far more balanced between the run and the pass.
The glut of challengers this season says plenty about the N.F.L., too. Rodney Harrison, the former Patriots safety who is now an analyst on NBC’s “Football Night in America,” points to the rules changes, like those that protect the quarterback in the pocket and defenseless receivers downfield, that favor the offense. Harrison said he believed that because teams could not build defenses able to stop offenses with plenty of weapons and the rules to exploit them, they instead opt to spend their money to develop high-powered offenses that can outscore everybody. The most successful of those teams keep their offenses in place over several years.
Gannon, who finished with 4,689 yards in 2002, said: “You’re talking about elite players with a lot of continuity: the same play-caller, the same systems, the same receivers. They really benefited from the lockout; they could have gone into Week 1 with 90 percent of the offense in without much of a training camp. All that contributes to a certain comfort level, a certain functionality, and these guys are just cutting it loose.
“All the play-callers are very aggressive, and each of these quarterbacks has a lot of flexibility at the line of scrimmage to change plays and protections. If you’re Mike McCarthy, are you going to run the ball 30 times with Ryan Grant, or let Aaron Rodgers throw it?”
In Gannon’s case, there was not much made of how close he was to Marino’s record in 2002 until about Week 11 or 12. But his experience also shows that it takes a perfect confluence of events to get the record. Gannon’s pursuit was short-circuited by a deluge at Oakland for a late December game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Gannon remembered there being six inches of rain on the field in some spots; the Raiders attempted only 14 passes. That is why Gannon says Brees has the best chance to break the record: the Saints play their remaining games indoors, at Minnesota and at home against Atlanta and Carolina. Because the Saints are also likely to be battling for their playoff seeding until the final week, Brees will probably not have much rest. Brady, Rodgers and Manning play all of their remaining games outdoors, none in a warm climate.
“We could see a couple of them this year,” Gannon said. “These guys are special players. They are so smart, they are rarely surprised by anything they see defensively. Defensive coordinators don’t sleep well when they’re on the schedule.” -
